Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine, Taiwan leaders joined the United States and its allies to declare solidarity with the victim. Taiwan and Ukraine were democracies colleagues, they said, each in danger by their neighbor’s neighbor and authoritarian.
Now, President Trump’s tour against Ukraine could get rid of barters in Taiwan to find out if it can count on American support in the event of a expanded conflict with China, which claims the self-government island as a territory.
“Taiwan has spent the best part of the last three years to assert the way the fate of democracies is intimately linked and what happens to Ukraine affects Taiwan,” said Russell HsiaoThe executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute, based in Washington.
“With the apparently sudden change in the American position on the war of Ukraine,” said Hsiao, “this could have the effect of obliging some to ask themselves if the United States could draw the carpet in below. “
For decades, Taiwan has been faced with the possibility of an invasion by China, which now sends fighter planes and warships almost every day to probe its defenses. Taiwan’s ability to dissuade a potential attack depends on the presence of the United States to help and even send forces. The island’s leaders made closer ties with Washington a pillar of its foreign and defense policy for almost a decade.
But while Mr. Trump performs a spectacular reversal of American politics towards Ukraine, abandoning Western efforts to punish Russia for the invasion and insisting that Ukraine is to blame for the war, the partners of United States, including Taiwan, are forced to assess their own positions and assess how Trump’s support.
In Taiwan, Mr. Trump’s prickly comments on Ukraine could feed a current of public opinion arguing that the island has been abandoned several times by Washington and cannot trust its promises.
“The prospect of the United States is trying to conclude an agreement with Russia on Ukraine, without giving Ukraine a siege to the table, will strengthen the sense of American skepticism in Taiwan,” said Marcin JerzewskiThe head of the Taiwan office of the European Center for Security Policy, which is trying to promote cooperation between European and Asian democracies.
A certain anxiety has surfaced on social networks, with some Taiwanese commentators suggesting that if the war between China and Taiwan were to break out, Trump could adopt a similar transactional approach. (Taiwanese officials have said that the Chinese government secretly amplifies Washington’s online skeptical speeches in Taiwan.)
Sunday, dozens of Ukrainians and Taiwanese gathered in front of the de facto Russian embassy in Taipei. “Russia is the attacker,” said an organizer – a tacitly, but obviously, targeting Mr. Trump.
“If today he could abandon Ukraine – and I don’t know if he will really abandon Ukraine – then could he also abandon Taiwan?” said Huang Yu-Hsiang, a 23-year-old technician who was to the demonstration. “If they do not care about values, it means that they could abandon Taiwan, a coherent supporter of democracy.”
Trump does not seem to have a strong commitment to Taiwanese democracy. This contributed to concerns that he could put Taiwan’s interests in danger if he negotiates a big trade agreement with the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, who told Mr. Trump and former American presidents that Taiwan is a concern key in their relationship.
For the moment, Taiwanese officials raised A positive note On relations with Washington, taking care to avoid an open ditch with Mr. Trump. During a security forum in Taipei last week, President Lai Ching-Te performed Taiwan as a key player in the struggle of democracies against authoritarian powers such as Russia, China and Iran. But Taiwan’s support statements in Ukraine have been measured recently, avoiding details of Trump’s decisions.
What does Taiwan think of the possibility that the United States can reduce support for Ukraine or force him to accept terms of peace that promote Russia? Joseph Wu, the Secretary General of the Taiwan National Security Council and former Minister of Foreign Affairs, bypassed the question of the same security forum.
“Serve in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for six – for more than six years – I know there are things I can say, and there are things that I cannot say,” said Mr. Wu . “Our own fate is controlled in our hands,” he said.
When President Vladimir V. Putin sent Russian forces to grow up in Ukraine in a complete invasion three years ago, Taiwanese leaders were already fearing that Mr. Xi did not feel embraced to try something similar on their soil. He had supervised a severe security repression in Hong Kong and a rapid accumulation of the Chinese army.
Tsai Ing-Wen, president of Taiwan at the time, and his officials Rhetorical parallel drew Between Taiwan and Ukraine while they were trying to support the public to their policies, including more military preparations and the strengthening of links with other democracies.
The invaders must not be unpunished, Bi-Khim Hsiao, who is now vice-president of Taiwan, told journalists in 2023, when she was her chief representative in Washington. “We must make sure that anyone who envisages the possibility of an invasion understands it,” she said, “and that is why the success of Ukraine to defend against aggression is so important for Taiwan. »»
It was clear to Taiwan that Mr. Trump’s return to the White House would inject uncertainty in the relationship with the United States, even before his recent statements on Ukraine.
As a candidate in the White House and after taking office, Trump said Taiwan spent far too little on his soldiers and was too complacent about the United States coming to his rescue in a war. He also accused Taiwan of winning unfairly in the manufacture of advanced semiconductors for smartphones and other technologies.
But the Taiwanese officials and experts said that, despite the pressure from Mr. Trump, Taiwan is very different from Ukraine and more important to the United States. They argue that the Trump administration considers China as a more urgent challenge for the United States than Russia, and that Taiwan can be a faithful partner in this context.
Lai, the president of Taiwan, tried to trigger a serious violation with Mr. Trump. This month, He announced that Taiwan would increase military spending to at least 3% of its economic production (against approximately 2.45% This year). He also said that the island – which has more semiconductors manufacturing factories, or “fabs”, that any other place in the world – would offer proposals in response to the demand of Mr. Trump according to which more Such plants be built in the United States.
“Additional weapons purchases and energy imports to semiconductor FABS in the United States, the LAI administration will have to offer an optimal mixture that can attract the attention of President Trump and rush,” said Mr. HSIAO, researcher in Washington. “Time is really essence for Taipei.”
