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The leaders of the two rival superpowers in the world have a lot to say. But so far, it seems, they cannot agree when they should speak, or even if they have already done so.
In the past 10 days, President Trump has sent contradictory messages to the conversation to the first Chinese leader, Xi Jinping. Trump said on February 3 that they would have a call in the “24 hours”, then reversed, saying that he was “without haste” to speak. More recently, when he was asked if the two had spoken since he had taken office, Trump said they had done so.
On the other hand, Mr. XI said nothing about talking to Mr. Trump. And on Tuesday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry suggested that no type of this type had taken place since Mr. Trump’s return to the White House, apparently contradicting Mr. Trump’s claim, which he made during of an interview with the host of Fox News Bret Bare which broadcast this week.
Mr. XI, it seems, is not in a hurry to engage, blocking progress on a number of thorny questions in competition from nations for world power. (The two parties say that the leaders spoke on January 17, before the inauguration of Mr. Trump.) Even if Mr. Trump imposed prices targeting China directly and indirectly, Mr. XI played it cool , preferring to be seen welcoming foreign dignitaries to the opening of Asian winter games in the northeast iced city of Harbin.
Disconnection reflects, in part, how Mr. XI tries to show Mr. Trump and the Chinese people that he will not be intimidated by prices, according to analysts. XI does not want to be confused with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada or President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, who quickly negotiated with Mr. Trump after threatening to slap 25% prices on exports of their nations to the States -Unis.
These leaders “gave in to Trump and Trump won the victory,” said Zhiqun Zhu, a Chinese foreign policy expert at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania. “XI won’t let this happen. This would reflect very, very badly on him at the national level. I think the strategy is to wait and see what Trump can offer before making a call. »»
Mr. Zhu declared that Mr. Xi could also be upset by a joint declaration according to which Mr. Trump and Japanese Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, were released after their meeting in Washington last week, which was addressed to Taiwan, The autonomous island claimed by Beijing.
Mr. Trump and Mr. Ishiba declared that they were opposed to any modification of the status quo in the Taiwan Strait made not only by force, but by coercion. The mention of coercion, considered as a first, refers to the use by China of non -military means to put pressure on Taiwan, such as cyber attacks and commercial restrictions.
To conclude an agreement with Mr. XI, Mr. Trump will be almost certainly in a hurry to soften Washington’s position in Taiwan. This could include a commitment to reduce sales of American weapons to the island, or a statement that the United States “opposes” to formal independence for Taiwan (currently, he says he “does not does not support ”).
It is not clear if the Trump administration would even consider such concessions, which could be largely considered a blow for the safety of Taiwan.
Administration can also be reluctant to give in to another major request from Mr. XI: loosen American restrictions on technology exports to China, such as advanced semiconductors necessary to fuel artificial intelligence, a battlefield key between the two best economic powers in the world.
As for Mr. Trump, he wants China to reduce his trade surplus with the United States and do more to suppress undocumented immigration, as well as the sale of chemicals used to make fentanyl. He called on China to approve a sale of Tiktok so that an American company could buy half of the video sharing platform, and he suggested that Beijing helps its administration ended the war in Ukraine.
Chinese analysts have said that all of Trump’s promise should be seen skeptically. Relations between the two countries seemed stable when Mr. Trump visited Beijing in November 2017 and congratulated Mr. Xi, saying that he had not blamed China for his trade deficit with the United States. Two months later, he launched his trade war with China.
Trump, “said beautiful words,” Xin Qiang, an American-china expert at Fudan University in Shanghai, said. “But what is important is how he translates them into action. His actions are the opposite.
Other analysts have said that the apparent lack of appeal, so far, could be explained more easily.
Chinese leaders generally meet or speak with their foreign counterparts until their subordinates “solve all thorny questions” for an agreement or a joint declaration, said John Gong, professor of economics at the University of Business Business international and economic in Beijing.
Trump, however, works more as a business manager, seeking to negotiate with world leaders on the fly, as he did during his first presidential mandate with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader.
“Trump is a little delusional in the sense that he thinks in his own way, in the Western manner, that he can somehow make a sale argument and convince Xi” to do what he wants, said Mr. Gong . “It’s just not going to happen.”
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