The shares ended the first week of February, little, investors digested the profits of Big Tech Companies companies, a more expensive January than expected job report and continuous updates to President Donald Trump’s pricing policies .
For the week, the S&P 500 (^ GSPC) was almost flat, while the composite Nasdaq (^ ixixe) and the industrial average of Dow Jones dropped by approximately 0.4%.
During the coming week, inflation will occupy the front of the stage, with the consumer price index (ICC) at the exit on Wednesday morning. Updates on wholesale inflation and retail sales will also be closely followed.
But investors will also have an eye on the announcement provided by Trump of new prices of 25% on imports of steel and aluminum, as well as for more details on reciprocal rights at all levels.
On the company’s front, 78 S&P 500 companies, including McDonald’s (MCD), Coca-Cola (KO), Super Micro Computer (SMCI) and Airbnb (ABNB), should publish profits.
The January job reported on Friday has shown that signs of continuous resilience in the labor market as the unemployment rate has dropped unexpectedly, wages have increased more than expected and the monthly gains in December have been Revised to show that the American labor market was released in 2024 on an even better basis on an even better basis on an even better basis on an even better basis on an even better basis for an even better rescue base. that before.
This has prompted economists to argue that the Fed will probably not reduce the interest rates of soon. And if anything, it exerts more pressure on inflation data to show cooling before the central bank reduces borrowing costs.
“The most recent data is indicative of a job market that has regained its foot,” the main economist of Wells Fargo wrote on Friday. “This suggests that the risk of tail of a strong deterioration on the labor market has decreased and, therefore, the FOMC can wait to see how inflation data and economic development of the first quarter take place before taking Additional measures on the rate of federal funds. “
The shares rebounded after being initially abandoned on Monday while the 25% prices of President Trump on Mexico and Canada were delayed at least a month. But what is happening exactly with prices remains an overhang on the markets, because investors debate the potential impact on inflation and, subsequently, monetary policy.
Trump said on Sunday that he would present a 25% rate on steel and aluminum imported into the United States of all countries. He told journalists on Air Force One that he will announce the new metal functions on Monday, but did not say when they would be implemented. This decision puts Canada and Mexico, both of which are American steel and aluminum suppliers, back on the hot seat on the prices.
Also respect of commercial pressure, Trump said on Friday that he would announce a plan on reciprocal prices on American imports. The comments were made at a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Trump said Japan prices were an option.
Friday, in a research note, BlackRock Global Fixed Revenue Investment, Rick Rieder, said that it would probably take two low job reports to arouse a discussion on the Cycle of Interest Rates of the Fed. But he added that the risks surrounding Trump’s policies, including prices and a repression of immigration, confused the prospects.
“While we and the Fed keep our eyes focused on these reports on pay (and inflation), we must also look closely at the flow of news, then the reverberations around these events, to have a meaning for the moment Where the Fed and the market may feel confident that rates are close to a long-term neutral level, “wrote Rieder.
Washington DC, United States – Jan. 29: The president of the United States Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, is expressed while the United States Federal Reserve has retained the rate of reference policy to 4.25% to 4.5%, as expected January 29, 2025 in Washington DC, United States. (Photo by Yasin Ozturk / Anadolu via Getty Images) ·Anadolu via Getty Images
The development of investors now goes back on inflation data for interest rate reduction advice, a new update at the rate of price increases should be published on Wednesday.
Wall Street economists expect the CPI of January to display a 2.9% titles inflation in January, flat compared to the previous month. Prices should increase by 0.3% on a basis from month to month, by economist, below the 0.4% increase observed in December.
Based on “nucleus”, which eliminates the prices of food and energy, the IPC should have increased by 3.1% compared to last year in January, below 3.2% observed in December. The monthly basic price increases should light up at 0.3%, which was more than 0.2% in the previous month.
The first monthly retail report of 2025 should be published on Friday. Economists believe that retail sales were stable during the previous month in January. But the warning group of retail sales – which excludes several volatile categories such as petrol and directly feeds the gross domestic product (GDP) – should also have increased by 0.4%, against the 0.7% increase observed in December.
With more than 62% of S&P 500 companies making profits, the growth rate from one year to the next for the index continues to mount. Friday, the S&P 500 was stimulating for profits growth of 16.4% compared to the previous year. This would mark the fastest rate of growth in three years and is much higher than 11.8% of the growth in profits that analysts expected in early January.
Although the profits have been beating expectations, macro-factors continued to create stops and go, because the actions did not find clear direction. Friday, the actions slipped further after the last Survey on consumer feelings of the University of Michigan has shown that one -year inflation expectations of respondents have reached their highest level since November 2023.
One -year expectations on inflation increased to 4.3% in February, compared to 3.3% last month, marking the fifth time in 14 years that the survey declared an increase of 1 percentage point or percentage or percentage point or more in inflation expectations of the year.
The press release noted that the jump into inflation anticipations was “partly due to the perception that can be too late to avoid the negative impact of the pricing policy”.
The actions reversed the course to the news, the three major averages going from green to red. And although this is only a small sample of the action of the market, this reminds that what the prices mean for inflation are downright highlighted for the markets before a week which should provide updates on two fronts.
Economic data: New York has fueled one -year inflation expectations, January 3%)
Gains: McDonald’s (MCD), Monday.com (MNDY)
Economic data: Nfib Small Business Optimism, January (104.7 expected, 105.1 before)
Gains: BP (BP), Coca-Cola (KO), Doordash (Dash), Humana (Hum), Lyft (Lyft), Marriott International (Mar), Shopify (Shop), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Upstart (Upst), Zillow group (Z)
Wednesday
Economic data: Consumer price index, months in months, January ( + 0.3% expected, + 0.4% before); Basic CPI, from one month to the next, January ( + 0.3% expected, + 0.2% before); IPC, annual year by year, January ( + 2.9% expected, + 2.9% before); Basic CPI, from one year to the next, January ( + 3.1% expected, + 3.2% before); Real average time gain, from year to year, January (+ 0.7% before); MBA mortgage requests, week ending on February 7 (+ 2.2% before)
Economic data: Price index of producers, month in months, January ( + 0.2% expected, + 0.2% before); PPI, from one year to the next, January ( + 3.2% expected, + 3.3% before); Initial unemployment claims, week ending on February 8 (219,000 before);
Gains: Airbnb (abnb), Applied Materials (Amat), Coinbase (Coin), Crocs (Crox), Datadog (Ddog), Duke Energy (Duk), Draftkings (DKNG), John Deere (de), Palo Alto Networks (Panw), Roku (Roku), Sony (Sony), Twilio (Twlo), Wynn Resorts (Wynn)
Economic data: Retail sales, from one month to the next, January ( + 0% expected, + 0.4% before); Ex-Auto and Gas of retail sales, January (+ 0.3% before); Import price index, months in months, January ( + 0.4% expected, + 0.1% before); Export price, from one month to the next, January ( + 0.3% expected, + 0.3% before); Industrial production month on month, January ( + 0.3% expected, + 0.9% before)
Gains: Modern (mRNA)
Josh Schafer is Yahoo Finance journalist. Follow him on x @_joshschafer.
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